Pharma companies used to be very diverse in their areas of interest. As of the past couple decades, we’ve seen a consolidation of focus within companies such that one company may be ‘the derm company’ or another may be ‘the cancer company.’ It has done well for profits to focus where one has a known brand, but consolidation puts revenue at risk.
Between now and 2028, the top 20 pharma companies have $180b of revenue at risk largely because of this consolidation. They call it a ’patent cliff,’ and it’s very steep.
Some key stats:
- 190 drugs losing patent exclusivity by 2030, 69 of those are ‘blockbusters.’
- 46% revenue declines for the top 10 pharma companies over the next decade.
Pharma is on a tear to replace assets…they have to.
And our timing:
- The last branded topical toenail fungus drug loses its patent in 2026.
- Atopic dermatitis is growing at a ~15% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR), with the market forecast to hit nearly $30b by 2031.
You won’t find another opportunity to get into pharma/drug development at this stage unless you’re part of an institutional investment fund.
